Transit, Density, Fiscal Architecture, and Inclusion
CITIES
Canada Forward

Cities and Urban Infrastructure

Municipalities own 60% of Canada's infrastructure and receive 10% of government revenue. Toronto alone generates 20% of national GDP. Canada's cities are doing the economic work of a G7 nation on a property tax base designed for a much simpler time. The infrastructure deficit, the transit cost problem, and the fiscal governance gap are all the same problem seen from different angles.

Research brief · Q2 2026 Updated April 2026 Canadian Trade Intelligence Inc.
The Argument

Canada's cities are the economy, and they are being asked to fund the economy with property taxes

The Toronto Census Metropolitan Area alone generated approximately 20% of Canada's GDP in 2019 and more than 50% of Ontario's GDP.1 Greater Vancouver, Greater Montreal, Calgary, and Edmonton add further concentration. Canada is, in economic terms, a country of six major metropolitan economies surrounded by resource industries and agricultural land. Everything that happens in those metropolitan economies, from who can access employment to how long people spend commuting to whether the housing stock can accommodate the workforce that the economy requires, is a national economic question, not just a municipal one. And yet the governance and fiscal architecture of Canadian cities treats them as a subordinate order of government funded primarily by property taxes, designed to deliver local services rather than to manage the economic geography of a G7 economy.

The infrastructure deficit is both quantifiable and accelerating. The University of Toronto's School of Cities report on Canada's urban infrastructure deficit, published in late 2024, documents how the lack of critical urban infrastructure, from roads and water systems to transit, parks, and public housing, weakens Canada's global competitiveness and civic life simultaneously.2 Municipalities own approximately 60% of Canada's total infrastructure but receive approximately 10% of total government revenue. This structural fiscal imbalance has compounded over decades, producing the deferred maintenance, inadequate transit systems, and infrastructure cost overruns that characterize Canadian cities. The bill for decades of underinvestment is now arriving in the form of infrastructure replacement costs that are multiple times what the original investments would have cost.

Transit is the sharpest expression of the urban infrastructure gap. Canadian cities are building rapid transit at rates not seen in decades, funded by the recent large-scale federal investments. But as researchers Mok, Chitti, and Shalaby document in their comparative study of transit construction costs in Canada, the cost of building transit in Canada is among the highest in the world, and the management practices, risk allocation structures, and institutional capacity that produced the overruns at Metrolinx and other major transit agencies have not yet been systematically reformed.3 The result is that federal transit dollars are producing fewer kilometres of transit per billion invested than comparable jurisdictions in Europe, Asia, and even some American cities. Fixing this is not a funding problem. It is a project governance and institutional capacity problem that more money will not solve without structural reform.

The productivity dimension of urban density is well-established in the economic literature. Larger, denser cities are more productive per capita than smaller or more dispersed cities, a phenomenon economists call agglomeration economies. When workers in related fields are concentrated in proximity, they share information, build professional networks, and match skills to opportunities more efficiently than in dispersed settings. Investment in transit that makes it faster and more reliable to move between employment centres within a city region is investment in the productivity of everyone who uses that system. The TTC's economic impact analysis estimates that its investment in transit generates economic multipliers that far exceed the direct cost, not just for transit users but for the entire Toronto regional economy.

The care economy is inseparable from the cities question. Urban form determines care access. When childcare centres, elder care facilities, mental health services, and community support organizations are distributed through a city in ways that require a car or a long transit journey to reach, the cost and time burden of accessing care falls disproportionately on the households with the least resources. Fifteen-minute city concepts and transit-oriented development are not urban planning aesthetics. They are care access strategies. A city where the grocery store, the childcare centre, the library, and the transit stop are all within walking distance is a city where parents, caregivers, and people with disabilities can navigate daily life without the car-dependence that compounds inequality.

Indigenous urban communities are a significant and systematically underserved part of Canadian cities. The majority of Indigenous people in Canada now live in urban areas, not on reserves or in northern communities. Urban Indigenous people face specific barriers to housing, employment, healthcare, and social services that mainstream city systems were not designed to address. Indigenous-led urban organizations, friendship centres, and cultural spaces provide services and community that the formal city infrastructure does not, at chronically underfunded levels. The urban Indigenous population's economic participation, health outcomes, and cultural continuity are urban policy questions as much as they are Indigenous policy questions, and the governance silos that separate these categories have produced inadequate responses to both.

CTI position
Canada's cities cannot be economic engines and be starved of fiscal capacity simultaneously. The property tax system that funds municipal services was designed for a much simpler urban economy and a much smaller urban population. Every serious analysis of Canadian urban competitiveness reaches the same conclusion: municipalities need diversified revenue streams, including transit-oriented development charges, mobility pricing, and a direct share of consumption taxes, that are commensurate with the scale of their economic role. The federal government's Metro-Region Agreement model, which creates long-term integrated funding partnerships with major urban regions, is the right structural direction. The question is whether the funding levels and governance authorities that come with those agreements match the ambition of the infrastructure they are supposed to fund.
What's Happening Now

Current intelligence

► Signal — Q2 2026
Federal infrastructure tender volume has accelerated in Q1–Q2 2026 as Metro-Region Agreement funds begin flowing through provincial and municipal procurement systems. Transit, water, housing, and broadband tenders are posting at above-average weekly volumes on CanadaBuys and provincial portals. Simultaneously, Ukraine's State Agency for Reconstruction has issued its second tranche of municipal infrastructure procurement calling for technical assistance partners in water, energy, and urban transport — creating an export pathway for Canadian urban engineering and project management firms with relevant public sector delivery experience. CTI's procurement hub tracks both domestic and Ukraine-reconstruction tenders in real time.
Live procurement intelligence →
Key Findings

What the research establishes

Core findings: Cities and Urban Infrastructure brief, Q2 2026
01
The Toronto CMA generates 20% of Canada's GDP; Canada's six major metro areas generate the majority of national output. Municipalities own 60% of Canada's infrastructure but receive 10% of government revenue. This fiscal gap has compounded for decades into the infrastructure deficit that now requires far more expensive remediation than prevention would have cost. (University of Toronto Mobility Network, 20241)
02
Transit construction costs in Canada are among the highest in the world. Comparative research documents that Canadian transit agencies produce fewer kilometres per billion invested than European and Asian counterparts. The causes include risk allocation structures, project management practices, and institutional capacity gaps that federal funding alone will not address. (Mok, Chitti, and Shalaby, 20253)
03
Investment in transit generates economic multipliers throughout the urban economy. Transit investment enables agglomeration economies: larger, denser cities with better transit connectivity are measurably more productive per capita than comparable cities with poorer transit. The TTC economic analysis documents how transit investment's economic returns exceed its direct costs across the Ontario and Canadian economies. (University of Toronto Mobility Network, 20221)
04
Metro Vancouver received C$1.53 billion over ten years for transit in March 2025 under the Metro-Region Agreement model. The MRA framework creates a new form of long-term federal-provincial-municipal-transit agency collaboration. Its success or failure in Vancouver and Toronto will determine whether the model scales to other cities. (Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada, 20254)
05
Canada's transit mode share for sustainable transportation has not improved since 2018 despite major infrastructure investment. Federal targets set under the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program for a 25% increase in public and active transportation mode share have not been met, and national reporting on GHG reductions from transit investment has not been published. (CCPA, 20245)
Toronto CMA GDP share
20%
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area share of Canada's GDP. Greater than 50% of Ontario's GDP. Canada's economic geography is fundamentally urban.
Ontario brief →
Municipal infra ownership
60%
Share of Canada's total infrastructure owned by municipalities, which receive only 10% of government revenue. The structural fiscal gap between infrastructure responsibility and fiscal capacity is the root cause of the urban infrastructure deficit.
School of Cities →
Metro Vancouver transit
C$1.53B
Federal commitment to Metro Vancouver transit over ten years under the Metro-Region Agreement model. The MRA framework represents a new approach to long-term urban infrastructure partnership.
BC brief →
Transit and the Infrastructure Deficit

Why Canada spends so much on transit and gets so little

Canada is in the middle of the largest transit infrastructure expansion in its history. Billion-dollar subway extensions in Toronto, major light rail projects in Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal, rapid transit expansions in Vancouver, and the federal Public Transit Fund creating a permanent funding stream for the first time, all represent a commitment to transit investment that exceeds anything Canada has done before. And yet the evidence that this investment is changing how Canadians travel is limited. Transit mode share has not improved meaningfully. Cost overruns are systemic. Project timelines routinely double from initial estimates.

The comparative transit construction cost research is sobering. Canadian rapid transit projects consistently cost more per kilometre than European equivalents, not because Canadian labour costs are higher or Canadian geography is more challenging, but because of how projects are planned, structured, and managed. Stockholm builds complex underground transit at roughly a third of Toronto's per-kilometre cost. Paris has built more new transit infrastructure in the past decade than Toronto has in two decades, at lower cost and with shorter timelines. The causes, documented by Mok, Chitti, and Shalaby, include overreliance on risk transfer to contractors that inflates bids, inadequate institutional capacity and learning within transit agencies, procurement structures that discourage innovation, and political decision-making on project scope and design that occurs after cost estimates are set.

The governance fragmentation of Canadian transit makes this worse. In most provinces, transit is primarily a municipal responsibility, but the funding is federal and provincial, the planning is regional, and the operations are run by agencies with their own governance structures. The result is that no single institution has the authority, accountability, or capacity to learn from project to project in the way that successful transit agencies in Europe and Asia do. TransLink in Vancouver is the partial exception, with a regional governance model and dedicated revenue from fuel taxes and development charges that gives it more fiscal stability and long-term planning capacity than most Canadian transit agencies. Even TransLink faces the political difficulty of mobility pricing, which repeated studies have recommended and which has repeatedly been shelved because the municipal politicians who oversee it fear electoral backlash.

Urban Density and Productivity

What cities produce and why it requires density to produce it

The economic case for urban density rests on agglomeration theory: when workers with complementary skills are in proximity, the interactions that produce innovation, the sharing of specialized knowledge, and the matching of talent to opportunity are all more efficient. This is why financial services, legal services, technology, and creative industries concentrate in city centres rather than distributing across geography. It is why Toronto has more law firms per square kilometre than Thunder Bay, not because there is more demand for legal services in downtown Toronto per resident but because the density of economic activity generates more demand for specialized services overall.

The productivity implications of urban form are significant for Canadian economic policy. A city that enables high density, through zoning that allows for mixed uses, transit that makes it fast to move between employment centres, and housing that allows workers to live close to where they work, generates more economic output per resident than a city that requires car dependence, long commutes, and spatial separation of employment and residence. The School of Cities research on civic infrastructure documents how community infrastructure that facilitates interaction across income and ethnic groups, the parks, libraries, community centres, and public spaces that enable social mixing, produces the civic engagement and social trust that make cities function as communities rather than mere aggregations of housing.

The transit-housing connection is not widely understood in mainstream policy discussions but is central to both the productivity and affordability dimensions of Canadian urban economics. When transit investment is paired with zoning reform that allows higher-density residential development near transit stations, two things happen simultaneously: more people can live within a shorter commute of employment centres, improving productivity, and the supply of housing near transit increases, putting downward pressure on housing costs near transit. When transit is built but zoning around transit stations remains single-family residential, neither effect is achieved. Canada has consistently built transit without enabling the density that makes transit financially sustainable and that captures the productivity and affordability benefits of transit-oriented development.

Who Cities Include and Exclude

A gender-inclusive and Indigenous lens on urban policy

The design of cities is not neutral. Every decision about transit routes, the location of childcare centres, the design of public spaces, the distribution of community services, and the affordability of housing in proximity to employment reflects choices about whose needs are prioritized and whose are treated as secondary. An urban policy that takes gender equality, Indigenous inclusion, newcomer access, disability access, and low-income participation seriously looks different from one that treats these as add-ons to a default design that assumes a car-owning, able-bodied, middle-income adult.

Transit access is a gender equity issue. Women use transit more than men, make more complex multi-destination trips (combining childcare drop-off, grocery shopping, and employment in a single journey), travel more at off-peak hours, and are more dependent on transit in households where car ownership is single-vehicle. Transit systems designed around peak-period commuters on major corridors systematically underserve these trip patterns. The IRPP's research on rethinking urban mobility specifically identifies the need for equity-focused transit planning that allocates service based on need rather than peak ridership, with particular attention to low-income and marginalized populations for whom transit is not a choice but a necessity.

Urban Indigenous communities are the most severely underserved urban population in Canada. The majority of Indigenous people now live in cities, but urban service systems, from housing to healthcare to culturally appropriate social services, were not designed with Indigenous urban residents in mind. The federal government's Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada's work on social infrastructure for newcomers in Halifax documents how community gathering spaces and hyper-local media organizations fill information and social infrastructure gaps that formal city systems do not. The same principle applies to Indigenous friendship centres, language programs, and cultural organizations in urban centres: they are not supplementary services for a small community. They are the primary social infrastructure for a large and growing urban Indigenous population whose economic participation, health, and cultural continuity depend on their adequacy and funding.

Disability access is an urban infrastructure issue of growing economic significance. As the population ages and the proportion of Canadians with mobility, sensory, and cognitive disabilities increases, the accessibility of transit, public spaces, civic buildings, and employment environments becomes a larger determinant of labour market participation and economic inclusion. Canada's Accessible Canada Act commits to a barrier-free Canada by 2040. The gap between that commitment and the actual accessibility of most Canadian transit systems, sidewalks, and public buildings is large and is being closed too slowly given the demographic pressure. Investing in accessibility is not primarily a cost centre. It is an investment in the economic participation of a growing segment of the Canadian population whose labour market contribution is currently constrained by built environment barriers.

Key Researchers

Academics and analysts whose work is most relevant

School of Cities, University of Toronto
Karen Chapple and colleagues
The School of Cities' 2024-25 work on Canada's urban infrastructure deficit is the most comprehensive available synthesis of what the infrastructure gap costs, what caused it, and what addressing it requires. Their research spanning transit cost overruns, housing finance, newcomer social infrastructure, and civic infrastructure's role in democracy provides the academic foundation for a comprehensive Canadian urban policy agenda. Karen Chapple's directorship of the School brings a planning and geography perspective that integrates the housing, transit, and equity dimensions that are too often addressed in separate policy silos. For CTI, their work is the entry point for understanding urban infrastructure as an economic competitiveness question.
School of Cities →
University of Toronto Mobility Network
Transit economics and investment analysis
The Mobility Network's analysis of transit investment economic impacts, combining multi-regional input-output modelling with agglomeration theory, provides the most rigorous available case for transit as economic infrastructure. Their analysis of the TTC's regional economic impact demonstrates that transit investment generates returns across the broader Ontario and Canadian economies through agglomeration effects, not just direct user benefits. Their work complements the transit cost research of Mok, Chitti, and Shalaby by establishing why getting transit investment right matters economically, not just in terms of project management efficiency.
Mobility Network →
Institute for Research on Public Policy
Urban mobility and equity research
The IRPP's work on urban mobility, including the Affordability Action Council's 2024 report on equitable transportation options, applies a gender and low-income lens to Canadian transit policy that mainstream transit planning consistently underweights. Their analysis of how transit mode share has failed to improve despite major investment, and their documentation of how equity-focused funding models produce better outcomes for marginalized transit users, provides the evidence base for the accessibility and inclusion dimensions of urban infrastructure policy.
IRPP Urban Mobility →
Policy Watch

Signals that will tell us where this is heading

Track these over the next 12 months
Metro-Region Agreement expansion and funding levels. The MRA model with Metro Vancouver, and anticipated agreements with Toronto and Montreal, will define the federal government's long-term urban infrastructure investment architecture. Watch for whether the funding levels are commensurate with the infrastructure needs identified in the School of Cities deficit analysis, and whether governance structures give cities the authority to plan and deliver projects efficiently.
Transit project governance reform at Metrolinx and other agencies. The transit construction cost research identifies institutional capacity and project governance as the primary cause of cost overruns. Whether Ontario and other provinces reform procurement structures, risk allocation models, and project management practices at their transit agencies will determine whether federal transit investment produces competitive outcomes or continues the pattern of expensive delays.
Zoning reform near transit corridors. The housing affordability and transit mode share goals both require higher-density development near transit stations. Watch for provincial zoning reform that enables this density, and for municipal implementation of transit-oriented community plans that activate the land use complement to transit investment.
TransLink mobility pricing decision in Metro Vancouver. TransLink's funding crisis has repeatedly produced recommendations for mobility pricing (road tolls and congestion charges) that have been shelved for political reasons. Any movement toward implementation would establish the first mobility pricing system in Canada and provide a model for managing urban traffic demand and funding transit operations that other cities would watch closely.
Indigenous urban infrastructure funding announcements. Federal investments in Indigenous friendship centres, Indigenous housing in urban areas, and culturally appropriate urban Indigenous services are distributed across multiple departments with different funding streams and eligibility requirements. Watch for any consolidation or expansion of urban Indigenous infrastructure funding that better matches the scale of the urban Indigenous population's needs.
Notes and sources
  1. 1.University of Toronto Mobility Network. (2022). Economic, Social, and Environmental Benefits of Transit. Documents the Toronto CMA generating over 50% of Ontario's GDP and 20% of Canada's GDP in 2019, and provides multi-regional input-output analysis of TTC investment impacts. mobilitynetwork.utoronto.ca
  2. 2.School of Cities, University of Toronto. (2024-25). Canada's Urban Infrastructure Deficit: Toward Democracy and Equitable Prosperity. Edited by Karen Chapple. Documents the municipal infrastructure ownership (60%) versus revenue (10%) gap and the connection between infrastructure deficit, economic competitiveness, and civic life. Published with the Canadian Urban Institute. schoolofcities.utoronto.ca
  3. 3.Mok, C., Chitti, R., and Shalaby, A. (2025). Understanding the Drivers of Transit Construction Costs in Canada: A comparative study. Researchgate. Documents Canada's above-international-average transit construction costs and identifies project governance, risk allocation, and institutional capacity as primary causes. researchgate.net
  4. 4.Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada. (2025). 2024-25 Departmental Results Report. Documents the March 2025 announcement of C$1.53 billion over ten years for Metro Vancouver transit under the Metro-Region Agreement model. housing-infrastructure.canada.ca
  5. 5.Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. (2024). AFB 2024: Infrastructure, Cities and Transit. Documents that Canada's transit mode share for sustainable transportation has not improved since the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program began in 2018, and that GHG reduction targets have not been publicly reported. policyalternatives.ca