Childcare, Elder Care, and the Workforce Behind Everything Else
CARE
Canada Forward

Care Economy

Care work generates 13% of Canada's GDP, accounts for 22% of all jobs, and is performed disproportionately by women, Indigenous women, and racialized immigrant women. Unpaid care work is worth more annually than manufacturing and retail combined. Canada's economy runs on care. Its economic analysis almost never mentions it.

Research brief · Q2 2026 Updated April 2026 Canadian Trade Intelligence Inc.
The Argument

Canada's largest sector is also its most invisible

Care work, defined broadly to include childcare, elder care, disability support, healthcare, and the unpaid domestic labour that underpins all of it, is the foundation on which the rest of Canada's economy operates. Without childcare, parents cannot work. Without elder care and home care, adult children are forced out of the paid workforce to provide family care at home. Without personal support workers, nurses, and early childhood educators, there is no productivity, no innovation, and no economic growth in any other sector. The Canadian Labour Congress estimates that paid care jobs generate at least 13% of Canada's GDP and account for 22% of all jobs.1 Unpaid care work, the caring for children, aging parents, and people with disabilities that occurs in households without compensation, is estimated at up to C$860 billion annually, or roughly 37% of GDP. That exceeds the combined contribution of manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail.

These numbers are not disputed in the academic literature. They are simply not incorporated into the economic analysis that drives policy and investment decisions. The invisibility of care work is not an accident. It reflects a long history in which the work of caring for people was primarily performed by women within households, uncompensated, and therefore uncounted in the national accounts. That structure has changed significantly as more women have entered the paid workforce, but it has not changed enough. Women still perform a disproportionate share of unpaid care work, and the women who perform paid care work, the personal support workers, early childhood educators, home care aides, and long-term care staff, are among the lowest-paid workers in Canada relative to the education, skill, and physical and emotional demands of their roles.

The demographic pressure on Canada's care systems is structural and accelerating. Canada's 65+ population now represents 17% of the total, up from 13% in 2000, and is projected to reach 23% by 2031.2 The demand for elder care, home care, long-term care, and associated healthcare services will grow faster than the overall economy for at least the next two decades regardless of policy choices. This is not a forecast. It is the mechanical consequence of age cohort demographics that were established decades ago. Every year that passes without a significant expansion of Canada's care infrastructure and care workforce creates a larger gap between what the aging population will need and what the system will be able to provide.

The Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care system, launched with C$30 billion in federal funding across five years from 2021-22 to 2025-26, represents the most significant federal investment in care infrastructure in Canadian history.3 The Centre for Future Work estimates that C$32 billion in additional GDP was generated in 2024 from expanded ELCC, through direct sector output, supply chain effects, and increased female labour force participation, and that the expansion likely prevented Canada from experiencing a technical recession in the second half of 2023.4 This is not a social program that costs the economy. It is an investment in productive capacity that pays back through labour force expansion and productivity gains.

The care workforce itself is an economic story that deserves sustained attention. It is predominantly female. It is disproportionately composed of Indigenous women, racialized women, immigrant and migrant women, and women with disabilities. It is chronically underpaid relative to its skill requirements and its economic function. The wage gap between care sector workers and workers in comparable industries, controlling for education and experience, is one of the most well-documented forms of gender-based wage discrimination in the Canadian economy. Closing it is not primarily a question of fairness, though it is that. It is a question of whether Canada can recruit and retain the workforce that its aging population will require over the next two decades.

The Indigenous dimension of Canada's care economy is significant and underreported. Indigenous health outcomes lag non-Indigenous outcomes across virtually every measure. The causes are structural: the legacy of residential schools and intergenerational trauma, the underfunding of on-reserve healthcare and social services, the inadequacy of community mental health resources, and the systemic barriers Indigenous people face in accessing mainstream care systems. Indigenous-led care models, grounded in cultural safety, community governance, and traditional healing practices alongside Western medicine, are the most effective approach to closing these outcome gaps. The investment required to build them is modest relative to the cost of failing to.

CTI position
The political economy of care is slowly shifting in Canada. The C$10-per-day childcare system, whatever its implementation challenges, has demonstrated that care investment generates measurable economic returns. The next step is elder care: applying the same infrastructure-investment logic to long-term care and home care capacity that was applied to childcare. The demographic window for building that capacity before it is urgently needed is narrow. Canada has approximately five to eight years to substantially expand its elder care workforce, home care infrastructure, and long-term care capacity before the leading edge of the baby boom cohort reaches its highest-need years. A government that treats this as a social expenditure will be unprepared. A government that treats it as infrastructure investment, with the same economic analysis applied to transit or housing, will build something that serves the country for a generation.
What's Happening Now

Current intelligence

► Signal — Q2 2026
Canada's food processing sector is absorbing compounding labour pressure: PSW shortages in elder care are pulling workers away from food manufacturing and seasonal agricultural processing, while vacancy rates in meat packing, fruit and vegetable processing, and seafood plants across Atlantic Canada and BC have reached multi-year highs. The federal Immigration Levels Plan's care worker pathway has been slow to extend to food processing workers who face comparable conditions — creating a structural gap between the sectors the care economy depends on and the sectors that feed it. Federal care infrastructure investment, if extended to food processing labour access, would have measurable supply chain benefits.
Agri-food sector intelligence →
Key Findings

What the research establishes

Core findings: Care Economy brief, Q2 2026
01
Paid care jobs generate at least 13% of Canada's GDP and 22% of all employment. Unpaid care work contributes an estimated C$97.1 to C$112.7 billion annually, or approximately 4.2% of GDP, which exceeds the manufacturing sector's contribution when measured by replacement cost. Care is the largest economic sector in Canada when both paid and unpaid dimensions are counted. (CLC, 2026; Springer Nature, 20231)
02
The Canada-wide ELCC system generated C$32 billion in additional GDP in 2024. The Centre for Future Work estimates that expanded childcare added 110,000 women to the labour force, increased full-time female employment by the equivalent of 65,000 additional workers, and may have prevented a technical recession in 2023. (Centre for Future Work, 20244)
03
Canada's 65+ population will reach 23% of total by 2031, up from 17% now. Elder care demand will outpace economic growth for at least two decades. Every year of delayed capacity investment compounds the demographic gap between what aging Canadians will need and what the system can provide. (Open Canada, 20202)
04
Care work is performed disproportionately by women, Indigenous women, and racialized immigrant women. The Canadian Labour Congress identifies the care workforce as predominantly female and disproportionately Indigenous, racialized, and immigrant. The wage gap in care relative to comparable sectors is one of the most documented forms of gender-based wage discrimination in Canada. (CLC, 20261)
05
Budget 2024 established a federal Sectoral Table on the Care Economy. The table is mandated to advise on improving conditions for paid and unpaid care workers, improving care infrastructure, and addressing equity gaps including regional disparities and supports for equity-seeking groups. Its recommendations will shape the next phase of federal care policy. (Government of Canada, 20245)
Paid care GDP share
13%+
Minimum share of Canada's GDP generated by paid care jobs. Care accounts for 22% of all employment. The sector is larger than manufacturing when properly measured.
CLC analysis →
ELCC GDP boost 2024
C$32B
Additional GDP generated in 2024 from expanded ELCC, combining direct output, supply chain, and female labour force participation effects. Program cost was a fraction of this return.
Centre for Future Work →
Seniors by 2031
23%
Projected share of Canada's population aged 65 and over by 2031. Up from 17% now. The elder care demand curve is structurally defined; the only variable is whether capacity keeps pace.
Demographic data →
Childcare and Labour Supply

The economic case for universal childcare is now empirically established

Quebec's experience with subsidized childcare, begun in 1997 with a C$5-per-day programme, provided a quarter-century of data before the federal government launched the Canada-wide system in 2021. Statistics Canada's September 2024 analysis documents that Quebec mothers in single-parent families saw employment grow by 31 percentage points between 1997 and 2023, the largest provincial increase in the country, with the timing closely correlated with the introduction of the childcare programme. The logic is straightforward: when childcare is affordable, parents who want to work can work, and parents who previously could not afford to enter the workforce can do so.

The federal ELCC investment, C$30 billion over five years in agreements with 11 of 13 provinces and territories, produced measurable results in the first three years of implementation. Core-aged women's labour force participation increased by 1.4 percentage points since 2019, adding approximately 110,000 workers. The share of core-aged women working full-time increased by 2 percentage points, equivalent to another 65,000 workers in the labour force. The average cost of childcare to consumers declined 28% between 2021 and 2024, while overall consumer prices increased 13%, meaning families with young children experienced a real income improvement during a period of general inflation pressure.4

The implementation constraints are real and should not be minimized. The early childhood educator workforce, which must expand substantially to staff new childcare spaces, is facing a serious recruitment and retention crisis. ECE employment remains below 2019 pre-pandemic levels despite growing demand. The wages paid to early childhood educators do not attract and retain the workforce at the scale required. This is not a mystery. In every province where ECE wages have been substantially increased, retention has improved. The policy implication is that the federal government's investment in childcare places must be accompanied by investments in ECE compensation that make the profession competitive with other careers requiring similar education and skill. Without this, the physical infrastructure is created but cannot be staffed.

The equity dimensions of childcare access are significant. The ELCC system was designed to reach racialized communities, newcomer families, Indigenous communities, rural and remote areas, and families with children with disabilities. Implementation has been uneven. Urban centres with existing childcare infrastructure have seen faster take-up of federal funding. Rural and remote communities, and on-reserve First Nations communities, face greater challenges in building new capacity from a lower base. Indigenous-led childcare, combining early learning with cultural and language programming in a framework governed by Indigenous communities themselves, is the model with the strongest outcomes for Indigenous children and families. Its expansion requires not just federal funding but Indigenous governance authority over how that funding is used.

Elder Care and the Demographic Wall

The largest foreseeable economic and social policy challenge in Canada

Canada is building toward an elder care crisis with the same combination of demographic certainty and policy inadequacy that preceded the housing crisis. The demography is immutable: the baby boom cohort is now entering its high-care-need years at a rate that will not peak until the late 2030s. The policy response has been a series of incremental investments, a post-COVID long-term care federal commitment, home care expansions, caregiver benefit enhancements, none of which are scaled to the demographic requirement.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the structural inadequacy of Canada's long-term care system in its most severe possible way. The concentration of pandemic deaths in long-term care facilities reflected chronic underfunding, understaffing, inadequate infection control standards, and the fundamental structure of a sector that in many provinces mixes private for-profit, private non-profit, and public ownership in ways that create regulatory complexity and unclear accountability. The federal government's commitment to national standards for long-term care, announced in the post-COVID period, has moved slowly through a sector governed primarily by provincial jurisdiction. The gap between what the standard says and what the facility delivers remains wide in many jurisdictions.

Home care is the most cost-effective way to serve aging Canadians who do not yet require long-term care facility placement. A home care visit costs a fraction of a long-term care bed day, it is strongly preferred by the overwhelming majority of older Canadians, and it enables older people to remain in their communities and social networks rather than being institutionalized. Despite this, home care funding in most provinces is inadequate relative to demand, with long wait times for publicly funded services and a private market that is affordable only for higher-income families. The family members who fill this gap, predominantly women, typically daughters or daughters-in-law who reduce their paid work hours or leave the workforce entirely to provide family care, are performing an unpaid public service that saves the public system billions of dollars annually at significant cost to their own economic security and long-run pension entitlements.

Canada's C$97.1 billion annual unpaid care contribution is concentrated in elder care. Spouses, adult children, and other family members providing care to aging relatives contribute the majority of this economic value. The Journal of Family and Economic Issues research documents that living arrangement explains 81-83% of the variance in the value of unpaid care work, meaning proximity to the care recipient is the primary driver.6 This is an economic subsidy from individual families to the public care system, and it is systematically larger for women, for families in lower income brackets, and for families in communities with inadequate access to publicly funded care services. Recognizing this subsidy and building the public infrastructure to reduce it is both an equity imperative and an economic efficiency argument.

The Care Workforce

Who does this work and what they are owed

The care workforce is one of the largest in Canada and one of the most chronically undervalued. Personal support workers, early childhood educators, home care aides, long-term care staff, social workers, mental health workers, and community support workers provide services that are essential to the functioning of every other sector of the economy. They are also among the lowest-paid workers relative to the educational and skill requirements of their roles, and the physical and emotional demands they absorb in the course of their work.

The gender dimension of care work compensation is not incidental. It is the result of a consistent historical pattern in which work primarily performed by women is valued less than equivalent work primarily performed by men. The pay equity litigation and legislation of the past three decades have improved this somewhat in public sector care roles. The private sector care market, where much elder care and disability support is delivered, remains largely outside the reach of pay equity frameworks and consistently pays care workers less than the public sector for comparable roles. The result is high turnover, chronic staffing shortages, and care quality that is directly limited by the inability to recruit and retain qualified people.

The intersection of care workforce with immigration policy is structural. Canada relies heavily on immigrants and temporary foreign workers in care roles, particularly personal support work, long-term care, and domestic child care. This is an economically rational response to domestic labour shortages but it creates ethical and policy questions that are rarely addressed directly. Workers who come to Canada to provide care, often in conditions where their immigration status depends on the continuation of their employment, are in a structurally vulnerable position relative to their employers. Care work performed by migrant women deserves the same labour protections, wage standards, and paths to permanent residency as care work performed by Canadian citizens. The economic and human dignity arguments for this are the same argument.

Key Researchers

Academics and analysts whose work is most relevant

Canadian Labour Congress
Care economy research and advocacy
The CLC's March 2026 brief on the care economy as Canada's untapped economic superpower synthesizes the most comprehensive available picture of care's contribution to GDP, its workforce demographics, and the policy case for a Care Economy Commission. Their framing of the economic value of unpaid care, estimated at C$860 billion or 37% of GDP, is the most ambitious and well-documented quantification available. Their advocacy for a coordinated federal strategy brings together unions and women's rights organizations in a policy coalition whose research foundation is solid. The brief is essential reading for understanding the full economic scale of what Canadian care policy is governing.
CLC care economy brief →
Centre for Future Work
ELCC economic impact analysis
The Centre for Future Work's November 2024 analysis of the C$10-per-day childcare plan's economic effects is the most rigorous available assessment of the ELCC system's macroeconomic returns. Their C$32 billion GDP estimate for 2024 uses a multi-channel framework accounting for direct ELCC sector output, supply chain spending, and the labour force participation effects of reduced childcare costs. Their documentation of the female labour force participation gains, the full-time employment increases, and the argument that expanded ELCC prevented a 2023 technical recession provides the strongest available economic evidence for childcare as infrastructure investment rather than social expenditure.
Centre for Future Work →
Statistics Canada and academic researchers
Care economy conceptual framework and valuation research
Statistics Canada's 2023 Conceptual Framework for the Canadian Care Economy and the associated academic research by Springer Nature on family caregiver valuation represent the most methodologically rigorous available approaches to measuring care's economic contribution. The replacement cost estimate of C$97.1 to C$112.7 billion for unpaid care annually, based on 5.7 billion hours of care work, provides a lower-bound measure of the care economy's hidden GDP contribution. The dominance analysis showing that living arrangement explains 81-83% of the variance in unpaid care contributions has direct implications for housing and urban design policy, since proximity to aging parents determines the extent to which adult children are pressed into unpaid care roles.
StatCan Care Framework →
Policy Watch

Signals that will tell us where this is heading

Track these over the next 12 months
Federal Sectoral Table on the Care Economy recommendations. Budget 2024 established this table with a mandate to recommend concrete actions on care workforce conditions, care infrastructure, and equity. When recommendations are published, they will define the federal government's care policy agenda for the parliamentary cycle. The quality and ambition of those recommendations will indicate whether the government treats care as a social cost or an economic investment.
ECE workforce compensation announcements. The ELCC system's space expansion is outpacing its workforce expansion. Provinces that announce substantial ECE wage increases will close the recruitment and retention gap faster. Track Labour Force Survey ECE employment data quarterly for evidence that compensation improvements are drawing workers back into the profession.
Long-term care national standards progress. The federal commitment to national standards for long-term care has moved slowly through provincial jurisdiction complexity. Any formal federal-provincial agreement on minimum staffing ratios, inspection standards, or ownership transparency requirements would mark a significant shift in the federal government's approach to a sector whose inadequacy the pandemic made impossible to ignore.
Indigenous-led childcare and care service expansion. The ELCC agreements include specific commitments to Indigenous early learning and child care with dedicated funding streams. Progress in establishing Indigenous-governed, culturally grounded childcare on-reserve and in urban Indigenous communities will indicate whether the system is reaching the populations with the greatest access barriers.
Home care funding and wait time data. Provincial home care wait time data and funding levels are the most sensitive leading indicators of whether Canada is building elder care capacity ahead of the demographic curve. Any significant provincial expansion of publicly funded home care hours, along with associated workforce investments, would signal that the looming elder care crisis is being treated with appropriate urgency.
Notes and sources
  1. 1.Canadian Labour Congress. (2026, March). The Care Economy Is Canada's Untapped Economic Superpower. CLC. Estimates paid care jobs at 13% of GDP and 22% of all employment, and unpaid care at C$860 billion annually (37% of GDP). Documents the disproportionate concentration of care work among women, Indigenous women, and racialized immigrant women. canadianlabour.ca
  2. 2.Open Canada. (2020). Why Canadians should care about the global care economy. Documents Canada's 65+ population at 17% of total and projected to reach 23% by 2031. opencanada.org
  3. 3.Prime Minister of Canada. (2025, March). Affordable child care, a stronger economy. Documents ELCC extension agreements with 11 provinces and territories and cumulative investment of up to C$30 billion over 2021-22 to 2025-26 fiscal years. pm.gc.ca
  4. 4.Centre for Future Work. (2024, November). $10-per-Day Child Care Plan Already Boosting Canada's Economy. Estimates C$32 billion in additional GDP generated in 2024, 110,000 additional women in labour force, and argues expanded ELCC prevented a technical recession in H2 2023. centreforfuturework.ca
  5. 5.Government of Canada. (2024). Sectoral Table on the Care Economy. Employment and Social Development Canada. Established by Budget 2024 to advise on care workforce conditions, care infrastructure, and equity-seeking group supports. canada.ca
  6. 6.Saini, M., et al. (2023). Valuing the Contributions of Family Caregivers to the Care Economy. Journal of Family and Economic Issues. Springer Nature. Estimates replacement cost of 5.7 billion annual hours of Canadian care work at C$97.1 to C$112.7 billion, finding living arrangement explains 81-83% of variance in unpaid care contributions. link.springer.com