Transparent, repeatable, sector-specific
Every week our pipeline scores the top 5–7 export markets for each sector on two dimensions: opportunity and risk. Scores run from 0–10. A high opportunity score means conditions are favourable for Canadian exporters entering or expanding in that market. A high risk score means there are material barriers, sanctions exposure, or deteriorating conditions that require attention.
Scores are generated by a combination of automated signal analysis and AI assessment, using the same criteria each week. This makes them comparable week-over-week — a score of 8.7 for India this week can be compared against 8.2 the week prior to identify trend direction.
What goes into each score
- 30%Trade agreement access — Is a Canadian FTA in force? (CETA, CPTPP, CUSMA, CKFTA). Does it provide tariff elimination or preferential access for this sector?
- 25%Active demand signals — Are there confirmed procurement windows, import quota allocations, government buying programmes, or inbound buyer interest signals this week?
- 25%Canadian competitive advantage — Does Canada have a structural advantage in this market for this sector? (e.g. Canadian uranium in Japan, Canadian canola in EU, Canadian GovTech in Japan via CPTPP)
- 20%Market access conditions — Are there active TCS programmes, EDC financing availability, or CCC engagement in this market this week?
- 35%Sanctions & export controls — Are there active OFAC, UN, BIS, or Global Affairs Canada designations or export control restrictions affecting this market this week?
- 25%Regulatory barriers — Are there active non-tariff barriers, customs restrictions, import bans, or regulatory changes that create friction for Canadian exporters?
- 20%Political & geopolitical risk — Are there active political instability signals, diplomatic deterioration, or geopolitical events that could disrupt Canadian commercial relationships?
- 20%Currency & payment risk — Is there significant currency volatility, payment risk, or banking restrictions that affect Canadian exporter exposure in this market?
What the numbers mean
| Score Range | Opportunity Interpretation | Risk Interpretation | Trend Indicator |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0–10.0 | Strong conditions — active demand, FTA access, Canadian advantage confirmed. Prioritise this market now. | Material risk present — sanctions exposure, active restrictions, or significant political instability. | ↑ Improving week-over-week |
| 6.0–7.9 | Favourable conditions — some demand signals and access, but not all factors aligned. Monitor and prepare. | Moderate risk — some barriers or exposure, but manageable with proper compliance processes. | → Stable (±0.5 week-over-week) |
| 4.0–5.9 | Mixed signals — access or demand may be present but conditions are uncertain or contested. | Elevated risk — multiple risk factors present. Consult EDC and TCS before proceeding. | ↓ Deteriorating week-over-week |
| 0–3.9 | Poor conditions — significant barriers, no active demand, or Canadian competitive disadvantage in this market. | High risk — active sanctions, severe restrictions, or acute political risk. Proceed with caution or avoid. |
How we verify claims
Every signal in our reports includes a primary source citation. Our pipeline runs an automated fact-checking step that cross-references key claims against known data points — programme values, regulatory dates, trade figures — and flags discrepancies for review.
When our fact-checking step identifies a claim that could not be confirmed against known sources, or where our data suggests a discrepancy, the claim is marked with a ⚠ Verify badge. This means the signal is included in the report because it may be relevant, but you should confirm the specific claim before acting on it. The primary source link is always provided.
All intelligence is AI-assisted with editorial oversight. We use Claude (Anthropic) for signal analysis and summary generation. Scores are generated programmatically using the criteria above, not manually assigned. Exchange rates are drawn from the Bank of Canada public API. Stock data is drawn from Yahoo Finance. Procurement data is drawn from CanadaBuys, NATO NSPA, EU TED, and SAM.gov public feeds.
Accuracy Standards
Every specific claim on canadiantradeintel.ca is sourced from a primary authoritative source — official government publications, established news organizations, or primary international data (World Bank, IMF, Statistics Canada, Global Affairs Canada). Wikipedia is a useful starting point; we always cite the primary source it references.
Country dossiers and Canada Forward analysis pieces are reviewed quarterly. Weekly intelligence reports are generated from live sources each Tuesday. We flag time-sensitive data with its reference period.
Found a factual error? hello@canadiantradeintel.ca — we correct verified errors within 48 hours.
What these scores are not
Market opportunity and risk scores are intelligence tools, not investment recommendations, legal advice, or compliance determinations. A high opportunity score does not guarantee market success. A low risk score does not mean a market is sanctions-clean for your specific products — always conduct your own denied party screening and export control classification review before shipping.
Scores reflect conditions as of the weekly pipeline run date. Situations can change rapidly. For time-sensitive compliance decisions, consult EDC, the Trade Commissioner Service, and qualified export legal counsel.