Aerospace, Clean Energy, AI, and Industrial Strategy
QUEBEC
Canada Forward

Quebec

Quebec's non-residential investment grew four times faster than Ontario's from 2018 to 2024. Hydro-Quebec is committing C$155 to C$185 billion to energy infrastructure. Montreal is one of three global aerospace capitals and hosts the world's largest academic AI research centre. The province is demonstrating what coherent, state-supported industrial strategy produces.

Research brief · Q2 2026 Updated April 2026 Canadian Trade Intelligence Inc.
The Argument
Province of Quebec

Quebec is building the most coherent provincial industrial strategy in Canada

Quebec's economy generated C$381 billion in GDP in 2021, representing approximately 19% of Canada's total, making it the second-largest provincial economy after Ontario.1 But the more interesting story is not the scale. It is the trajectory. Between 2018 and 2024, Quebec's non-residential business investment per capita grew 20.1%, compared to 4.9% in Ontario and 3.8% for Canada as a whole. Household purchasing power grew 9.2% in real terms, compared to 5.1% in Ontario. GDP per capita growth narrowed the standard of living gap with Ontario from 15.9% to 10.2% in six years, the most sustained convergence in decades.2 Quebec is not only growing. It is growing in ways that produce productivity and living standard improvements that narrow the historical gap with Canada's largest economy.

The provincial government's 2025 economic vision identifies energy as the core of Quebec's autonomy, prosperity, and national identity. This is not rhetorical framing. Hydro-Quebec's Action Plan 2035 commits C$155 to C$185 billion in clean energy infrastructure investment, targeting the addition of 60 terawatt hours of new capacity by 2035 and a doubling of electricity production by 2050.3 The projected impact of this energy investment alone, including a landmark 9,190 MW agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador, is C$127 billion in cumulative GDP and C$6 billion in recurring annual gains after 2050. Quebec is doing what every other province says it wants to do with clean energy: committing capital to infrastructure at a scale that matches the stated industrial ambition.

The aerospace sector is the most concentrated expression of Quebec's industrial model. Montreal is one of three global aerospace capitals alongside Seattle and Toulouse, the only city in the world where all three of the largest aircraft manufacturers, Airbus, Boeing, and Bombardier, maintain direct presence. Quebec hosts over 40% of Canada's aerospace jobs and the sector contributes approximately C$14 billion annually to the provincial economy. Critically, Quebec's aerospace sector invests over C$700 million in R&D annually, representing approximately 70% of all Canadian aerospace R&D spending.4 This is not a manufacturing cluster executing someone else's designs. It is a design and engineering cluster that happens to also manufacture.

The AI and technology dimension adds a third pillar to Quebec's knowledge economy. Mila, established in Montreal in the 1980s under Yoshua Bengio, is the world's largest academic AI research centre. Google DeepMind, Meta AI Research, Microsoft Research, and Samsung AI Lab all maintain Montreal research operations. The province has attracted C$9 billion in venture funding from 2020 to 2024 and has five active unicorn companies, with Montreal ranking 39th globally as a startup ecosystem. The Northvolt battery plant cancellation in September 2025, following the Swedish parent company's collapse, was a genuine setback. But the Bécancour Energy Transition Valley, with BASF battery materials investment and ongoing lithium processing development, demonstrates that Quebec's battery supply chain ambitions are distributed across multiple projects rather than dependent on any single company.

Quebec's distinct political economy, including the civil law jurisdiction, the French language, the CDPQ's dual mandate, and the tradition of state-directed industrial strategy through the Caisse and Investissement Quebec, creates a governance model for economic development that differs structurally from other Canadian provinces. This is not simply cultural distinctiveness. It is a different theory of how governments and markets should interact in building industrial capacity. The empirical evidence from 2018 to 2024 suggests the theory is working better in Quebec than it is in most comparable jurisdictions.

CTI position
Quebec is demonstrating that provincial-level industrial strategy, when coherently designed and adequately capitalized, can produce measurable results in productivity and living standards. The combination of Hydro-Quebec's clean energy infrastructure, CDPQ's dual mandate for Quebec investment alongside returns, aerospace R&D depth, and Montreal's AI cluster creates a self-reinforcing knowledge economy that other provinces are attempting to replicate without Quebec's institutional foundations. The battery supply chain story, despite the Northvolt setback, remains compelling: Quebec has the lithium, the hydroelectric power for processing, the proximity to Ontario's battery manufacturers, and the institutional capital through CDPQ to finance mid-stream development. The test over the next decade is whether Quebec can maintain this trajectory as Hydro-Quebec's investment programme scales up, and whether the energy transition valley produces the processing capacity that the province's mineral strategy promises.
Key Findings

What the research establishes

Core findings: Quebec provincial brief, Q2 2026
01
Quebec's non-residential business investment grew 20.1% per capita 2018 to 2024, versus 4.9% in Ontario. Real household purchasing power grew 9.2% versus 5.1% in Ontario. The living standard gap with Ontario narrowed from 15.9% to 10.2% over the same period. (Quebec Ministry of Finance, 20252)
02
Hydro-Quebec's Action Plan 2035 commits C$155 to C$185 billion in clean energy infrastructure. The plan targets 60 TWh of new capacity by 2035 and electricity production doubling by 2050. Projected impact: C$127 billion cumulative GDP boost and C$6 billion in recurring annual gains after 2050. (Quebec Economic Vision, 20253)
03
Quebec hosts 70% of Canadian aerospace R&D spending at C$700 million annually. Montreal is one of three global aerospace capitals. Airbus, Boeing, and Bombardier all maintain direct presence, a globally unique concentration. The sector contributes C$14 billion to provincial GDP. (Quebec Wikipedia / Business Report4)
04
Montreal attracted C$9 billion in venture funding 2020 to 2024 with five active unicorns. Mila is the world's largest academic AI research centre. Electricity costs are 49% below the G7 average, attracting energy-intensive AI and manufacturing investment. (NextStars, 20255)
05
CDPQ operates under a dual mandate: maximizing returns while investing in Quebec. Its statement that it will finance productivity-boosting projects and help Quebec companies diversify markets positions it as Canada's most explicit model for pension capital aligned with provincial industrial strategy. (IPE, 2025; Policy Options, 20256)
GDP
C$381B
Quebec's total GDP in 2021, approximately 19% of Canada's national output. Second-largest provincial economy. Standard of living gap with Ontario narrowing consistently.
Economy overview →
Hydro-Quebec investment
C$155-185B
Hydro-Quebec's Action Plan 2035 capital commitment. Largest single infrastructure investment plan in Canadian history. Targeting 60 TWh of new clean capacity by 2035.
Energy Transition →
Aerospace R&D share
70%
Quebec's share of all Canadian aerospace R&D spending. C$700 million annually. Montreal is one of three global aerospace capitals with Seattle and Toulouse.
Aerospace report →
Aerospace: the Global Cluster

Why Montreal matters more to global aerospace than Canadians know

The Quebec aerospace cluster is one of the most consequential in the world and one of the least recognized outside Canada. The presence of Airbus, Boeing, and Bombardier in the same city is globally unique. The industrial ecosystem that has built up around these anchors, including Pratt and Whitney, Bell Helicopter, CAE, Safran, and hundreds of specialized parts manufacturers and service providers, represents decades of accumulated supply chain relationships, engineering expertise, and skilled workforce development that cannot be replicated quickly elsewhere.

Quebec's aerospace workers produce and design components that fly on aircraft manufactured around the world. The sector's C$700 million annual R&D investment is not simply product maintenance. It is the development of next-generation aircraft systems, composite materials, electric propulsion components, and simulation technologies that will define aviation's next generation. CAE's flight simulation products command approximately 70% of the global market. Bombardier has repositioned from commercial to business aviation, where it holds a leading market position in the ultra-long-range segment. Pratt and Whitney's engine designs and manufacturing in Montreal power aircraft across every major airline.

The sector faces a structural workforce challenge. Quebec Budget 2024/2025 identified a need for 41,500 new aerospace workers over the next decade and committed C$74.5 million over five years to attract, train, and retain them. Women are underrepresented in aerospace technical and engineering roles across all jurisdictions, and Quebec's aerospace sector has been working with universities and colleges to build recruitment pipelines that reach beyond the historically male-dominated talent pool. Indigenous participation in aerospace remains low, reflecting both historical recruitment barriers and the geographic concentration of the sector in urban Montreal, distant from northern Indigenous communities.

Hydro-Quebec and the Energy Strategy

Clean electricity as industrial policy

Quebec's 99% renewable electricity grid is the foundation of its industrial strategy, and Hydro-Quebec's investment plan is the largest expression of that strategy. At C$155 to C$185 billion over 10 years, the Action Plan 2035 is not simply a utility expansion. It is a deliberate attempt to create the electricity capacity required to attract and sustain industrial investment in battery manufacturing, aluminium smelting, hydrogen production, data centres, and advanced manufacturing that requires clean, cheap, reliable power at scale.

Quebec's electricity prices are 49% below the G7 average. This is not a subsidy in the conventional sense. It reflects the original capital investment in hydroelectric infrastructure over decades, now largely amortized, and the governance of Hydro-Quebec as a public utility whose mandate includes industrial development rather than profit maximization. The result is a durable industrial location advantage that compounds as carbon pricing rises in other jurisdictions and as supply chain buyers apply Scope 3 emissions requirements to their suppliers.

The landmark 9,190 MW agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador, incorporating the Churchill Falls facility and the Atlantic Loop transmission concept, extends Quebec's clean electricity position into Atlantic Canada and creates the infrastructure for an integrated eastern Canadian clean energy economy. The Atlantic Loop, which would allow clean energy to flow between Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and potentially Prince Edward Island, represents the most significant regional energy infrastructure development in Canada since Confederation. Its realization depends on federal, Quebec, and Atlantic provincial governments maintaining coordinated commitment over a decade-long construction timeline.

AI and Innovation

Mila and Montreal's position in the global AI landscape

Yoshua Bengio's work on deep learning at Universite de Montreal, which contributed foundational techniques to every major AI system in use today, established Montreal as an AI research centre before the current AI investment wave made that valuable. Mila now employs over 1,000 researchers and has spawned dozens of AI companies. The research and talent concentration that Mila anchors has attracted a roster of major technology company research labs that is extraordinary for a city of Montreal's size.

The Northvolt cancellation in September 2025 was a setback for Quebec's battery supply chain ambitions, but it is instructive to understand what actually happened. Northvolt's Swedish parent company collapsed due to cost overruns and quality failures in its Swedish and German facilities, not due to any problem with the Quebec investment environment. The Quebec facility, which had not yet broken ground, was cancelled because the parent company no longer existed to fund it. The underlying case for Quebec as a battery manufacturing location, clean electricity at 49% below G7 average costs, lithium deposits in the Abitibi region, proximity to Ontario's battery assemblers, and CDPQ capital availability, remains intact. Multiple projects in the Bécancour Energy Transition Valley are proceeding.

Indigenous Economy

Hydro-Quebec, resource development, and Indigenous governance in the North

Quebec has 11 recognized Indigenous Nations with over 90,000 people and 59 communities across the province. The economic and political relationship between the Quebec government, Hydro-Quebec, and Indigenous nations is one of the most historically complex and consequential in Canada. The James Bay Agreement of 1975, the first modern land claim in Canada, was negotiated between the Quebec government, Hydro-Quebec, and the Cree and Inuit peoples of northern Quebec in response to the proposed James Bay hydroelectric project. It established a model of negotiated consent and economic participation that has been both a reference point and a source of ongoing critique.

The Grand Council of the Crees has evolved from a party to a negotiated settlement into a sophisticated economic development entity. Creeco, the economic development arm of the Grand Council, manages investments across construction, aviation, and resource development. The Cree Nation Government exercises governance authority over its territories. This is not passive economic participation. It is the exercise of Indigenous governance and economic agency at a scale that few other Indigenous governments in Canada have achieved, and it was built on the foundation of the James Bay Agreement's negotiated economic provisions.

Hydro-Quebec's expansion plans under Action Plan 2035 require extensive new development in northern Quebec, including wind power in Cree and Innu territories and transmission corridors through Indigenous lands. The approach to these developments will define whether the next generation of Hydro-Quebec expansion follows the partnership model that has made the Cree an economic actor in their own territory, or whether it repeats the historical pattern of development imposed on Indigenous lands without adequate consent and economic participation.

Key Researchers

Academics and analysts whose work is most relevant

Mila and Universite de Montreal
Yoshua Bengio and the Montreal AI research community
Bengio's foundational work on deep learning and recurrent neural networks, recognized with the 2018 Turing Award alongside Geoffrey Hinton and Yann LeCun, established the technical foundation for modern AI. His ongoing research at Mila, combined with his increasing public engagement on AI safety and governance, makes him both the intellectual anchor of Montreal's AI cluster and a significant voice in international AI policy. His willingness to engage on both the technical and governance dimensions of AI distinguishes his contributions from researchers who focus narrowly on either research or advocacy. For CTI, Mila's quarterly research outputs are a leading indicator of where commercial AI applications are heading two to three years ahead.
Mila Quebec AI Institute →
Quebec Ministry of Finance
Fall 2025 Economic and Financial Update
Quebec's Ministry of Finance produces the most detailed comparative economic analysis of any Canadian provincial government, consistently benchmarking Quebec's economic performance against Ontario and the Canadian average across investment, productivity, and living standard metrics. The Fall 2025 update's documentation of the 2018-2024 business investment and purchasing power outperformance is the primary source for understanding Quebec's economic convergence trajectory. Their deficit reduction path and fiscal planning documents also provide insight into how the province's industrial strategy is being financed relative to its fiscal constraints.
Quebec Finance Update →
Supply Chain & Sourcing

What this province produces — supply chain and sourcing context

Quebec is Canada's primary aluminum smelting province: Rio Tinto and Alcoa operate smelters at Alma, Baie-Comeau, and Sept-Iles that collectively produce roughly 60% of Canada's primary aluminum, supplying automotive, aerospace, and packaging manufacturers. Bombardier and Pratt & Whitney Canada anchor an aerospace components cluster in Greater Montreal that produces business jet fuselages, landing gear, and aircraft engines. Quebec's hydroelectric surplus — among the cheapest industrial power in North America — underpins energy-intensive manufacturing including data centres and electrolytic processing. The province's dairy and cheese processing sector (regulated supply management) produces distinctive specialty products. Montreal's AI and software cluster (Mila, Scale AI) is a growing professional services export.

Policy Watch

Signals that will tell us where this is heading

Track these over the next 12 months
Hydro-Quebec Action Plan 2035 project approvals and Indigenous agreements. The first wave of specific wind and transmission project approvals under the Action Plan, and the Indigenous partnership agreements associated with projects in northern Quebec, will signal whether the expansion programme is on track and whether the Cree and Innu partnership model is being applied to new development.
Bécancour Energy Transition Valley investment announcements. The post-Northvolt pipeline of battery materials and energy transition manufacturing investment in Bécancour will indicate whether Quebec's battery supply chain ambitions are being realized through diversified investment rather than single-project concentration. Watch for BASF cathode materials production start dates and any new lithium processing announcements.
Atlantic Loop federal funding commitment. The Atlantic Loop transmission project requires federal financing to be viable at the scale required. Any federal commitment to the Loop is a major signal for Quebec's energy export ambitions and for Atlantic Canada's clean electricity access. The project's status is the most important regional energy infrastructure signal in eastern Canada.
CDPQ domestic investment announcements in energy and manufacturing. CDPQ's stated commitment to financing productivity-boosting projects and helping Quebec companies diversify markets will manifest in specific investment announcements. Track CDPQ's annual report and investment news for evidence that the dual mandate is producing domestic capital deployment aligned with Quebec's industrial strategy.
Quebec AI Act compliance framework for Mila-adjacent companies. As the EU AI Act comes into full force, Montreal AI companies with EU market ambitions need to navigate compliance. Quebec's approach to provincial AI governance and its support for EU-compliant AI development will determine whether the Montreal cluster's regulatory posture creates a European market advantage.
Notes and sources
  1. 1.Wikipedia contributors. (2026). Economy of Quebec. Documents C$381 billion GDP and approximately 19% national share. wikipedia.org
  2. 2.Quebec Ministry of Finance. (2025, November). Update on Quebec's Economic and Financial Situation: Fall 2025. Documents 20.1% non-residential investment growth per capita 2018-2024 versus 4.9% in Ontario, 9.2% purchasing power growth, and narrowing of living standard gap with Ontario from 15.9% to 10.2%. finances.gouv.qc.ca
  3. 3.Capital Hill Group. (2025, November). Quebec's New Economic Vision 2025-2026. Summarizes Hydro-Quebec's Action Plan 2035 (C$155-185 billion), the 9,190 MW Newfoundland and Labrador agreement, and the projected C$127 billion cumulative GDP impact. capitalhillgroup.ca
  4. 4.Wikipedia / Business Report data compiled. Quebec's aerospace sector contributes approximately C$14 billion to provincial GDP, employs 40% of Canadian aerospace workers, and invests C$700 million in R&D annually (70% of national aerospace R&D). wikipedia.org
  5. 5.NextStars Research. (2025, December). Investing in Quebec: A Strategic Guide. Documents C$9 billion in venture funding 2020-2024, five active unicorns, 49% below G7 average electricity costs, and Microsoft, IBM, and Scale AI investments. nextstars.io
  6. 6.IPE. (2025, April). The Maple Eight: Canada's pension funds focus on home turf. Documents CDPQ CEO's statement on financing Quebec productivity and diversification projects. See also Policy Options IRPP. (2025, December). Why Canada's pension giants should invest more at home. ipe.com